The App

A Three Point Monte Carlo app for iPhone, Android and web.

This is a Flutter app that I am working on to learn Flutter. It is in a very rough state at the moment, but will get better. The add button adds rows for input. Hitting submit will give you a histogram of the results of running three point estimates of the set of numbers you input 20,000 times. It will be available for iPhone, Android and web.

I am curious if this would be valuable for time or money estimates such as buying a house to fix up and sell, or project time or cost, or buying a business etc. 

The more the project can be broken down into items and the better the minimum, most likely and maximum estimates are, the better the final result. One note, the minimum and maximum need to be true minimum and maximum. For the house example it would be the lowest or highest purchase price or job estimate like roof repair, plumbing, drywall etc. that would actually happen, each as a separate min, likely and max. The most likely value is just as it sounds. 

Here is a good link to understand the math of Monte Carlo simulation and three point estimates a bit better: eight2late.wordpress.com

Here is a google sheet similar to the Excel sheet in that article but simplified to not have parallel tasks to see it in a different form: google doc

And here is the web version...